Forecaster Who’s Rightly Predicted Presidential Winners Over 40 Years Reveals Likely Outcome of Trump-Harris Matchup
Professor Allen Lichtman, the renowned “Nostradamus” of presidential elections, has revealed his latest forecast for the upcoming November contest.
His latest prediction has sent shockwaves through the political landscape, as he’s stated Vice President Kamala Harris is currently on track to secure victory in her race against Trump for the White House.
Lichtman, a professor at American University, has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since Ronald Reagan’s reelection in 1984.
His model, which employs thirteen key factors to assess the political landscape, has been updated to reflect the recent dramatic shift in the Democratic Party’s lineup.
With President Joe Biden’s unexpected withdrawal from the race, Harris has emerged as the presumptive Democratic nominee.
This sudden change has altered the dynamics of the election, but Lichtman’s model suggests it may ultimately work in the Democrats’ favor.
“I plan to make my official prediction in August after the Democratic convention,” Lichtman stated on X.
“See my assessment below on the 13 Keys Tracker on where The Keys stand NOW.”
I plan to make my official prediction in August after the Democratic convention.
— Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtman) July 26, 2024
See my assessment below below on the 13 Keys Tracker on where The Keys stand NOW. Please listen to our LIVE show on 7–25–24, linked in the comments below, where we detail every Key. pic.twitter.com/pJpkpa3SzW
Several factors are currently tipping the scales in Harris’ favor, per Lichtman.
He stated that the absence of a primary challenger, limited threat from third-party candidates, and a strong economy in both short and long-term metrics are all positive indicators for the Democratic ticket.
Lichtman also argues that the White House has avoided major policy changes, and Harris is not facing any significant scandals or social unrest.
The historian noted, however, that the transition from Biden to Harris has cost the Democrats one advantage: the incumbency factor.
Lichtman explained that with Harris and Trump set to face off, this race is essentially open now.
The Democrats have managed to mitigate potential damage by quickly rallying behind Harris despite the setback of Biden dropping out, Daily Mail outlined.
The party has avoided a chaotic open primary or last-minute entries from other presidential hopefuls, maintaining a united front.
In an interview with C-SPAN, Lichtman emphasized the tentative nature of his assessment.
“I have not made a final prediction. I’ve said I will make it after the Democratic convention,” he clarified. “But I have said for months, and I continue to say a lot would have to go wrong for Democrats to lose.
“That could happen, but a lot would have to change.”
According to my assessment of where the Keys stand now as detailed on the 13 Keys Tracker. See the charting below. Please listen to our LIVE show on 7–25–24, linked in the comments below, where we detail every Key and the criteria for turning them. pic.twitter.com/D4Pv9rNzbV
— Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtman) July 26, 2024
The professor also suggested that Harris’ nomination could have positive effects on several key factors.
It may reduce support for third-party candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. and potentially quell social unrest.
Lichtman observed, “It has a mixed result, Biden’s dropping out, and the presumptive nomination of Harris. But it doesn’t fundamentally change my assessment that a lot would have to go wrong for the Democrats to lose.”
While Lichtman’s model paints an optimistic picture for the Democrats, Daily Mail reported that recent polls tell a different story.
The race remains extremely close, with an average of the latest polls showing Trump leading by less than two points.
Battleground state polls also indicate a tight contest between Trump and Harris.
There are signs that Harris’ nomination has energized the Democratic base, however.
Daily Mail explained that recent polls show a jump in enthusiasm among Democrats and an increase in Harris’ approval ratings since becoming the presumptive nominee.
As the election approaches, all eyes will be on Lichtman’s official prediction, expected next month.