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Forecaster Who’s Rightly Predicted Presidential Winners Over 40 Years Reveals His Pick For 2024


Forecaster Who’s Rightly Predicted Presidential Winners Over 40 Years Confidently Reveals His Pick For 2024 Election

A historian renowned for accurately forecasting every presidential election outcome since 1984 has confidently asserted that “a lot would have to go wrong” for Joe Biden to be defeated by Donald Trump in November.

The Daily Mail reported that Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University in Washington, DC, developed a method known as the “13 Keys” and outlined it in a book during the 1980s.

This method allows Lichtman “to predict the outcome of the popular vote solely on historical factors and not the use of candidate-preference polls, tactics or campaign events.”

Lichtman remains optimistic about president Biden’s chances of staying in office, despite national polls indicating challenges for him as he trails Trump in various swing states. 

The historian points out that two of his 13 keys–lack of a serious primary challenge and the advantage of incumbency–are already in Biden’s favor.

“That’s two keys off the top,” he stated. “That means six more keys would have to fall to predict his defeat. A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose.”

Lichtman remains unswayed by polls indicating Trump’s competitiveness with or lead over Biden on a national scale and in pivotal swing states, The Mail reports.

“They’re mesmerized by the wrong things, which is the polls,” he emphasized. “First of all, polls six, seven months before an election have zero predictive value.” 

Lichtman stated, however, that this does not grant the Biden campaign the luxury of assuming victory just yet.

“It’s always possible there could be a cataclysmic enough event outside the scope of the keys that could affect the election and here we do have, for the first time, not just a former president but a major party candidate sitting in a trial and who knows if he’s convicted – and there’s a good chance he will be – how that might scramble things,” Lichtman explained.

Lichtman attributed Biden’s 2020 victory to the historical significance of the COVID-19 pandemic, reflecting on the previous election.

“The pandemic is what did him in,” Lichtman asserted to The Guardian

“He congratulated me for predicting him but he didn’t understand the keys. The message of the keys is it’s governance not campaigning that counts and instead of dealing substantively with the pandemic, as we know, he thought he could talk his way out of it and that sank him,” the forecaster continued.

Lichtman, however, also acknowledges that some of the keys are currently favoring Trump.

A significant factor in the upcoming race could be the emergence of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a notable third-party challenger. The state of the economy is shaping up to be another pivotal element. 

Social unrest poses a considerable challenge for Biden, particularly evident in the surge of anti-Israel protests on college campuses, where The Mail explains the president is derisively labeled “Genocide Joe” by many young demonstrators.

Charisma, both of the incumbent and the challenger, is also deemed crucial. While age is a concern for both candidates, it seems to weigh more heavily against Biden than Trump, per Lichtman.

Notably Lichtman’s prediction missed the mark in 2000 when he anticipated Al Gore’s victory, he attributes this to what he perceives as a stolen election, given Gore’s popular vote win. However, he rightly called Trump’s 2016 win, despite Clinton winning the popular vote, highlighting the inherent uncertainties of the electoral system.

Lichtman acknowledges the pressure he faces, stating, “It’s nerve-racking because there are a lot of people who’d love to see me fail.” 

He maintains that human fallibility is inevitable though, asserting, “I’m human. It doesn’t mean my system’s wrong. Nothing is perfect in the human world.”